When Grey Market Premium lies.
Grey market premium sounds precise because it is quoted as a number, but the number sits outside the regulated chain that actually governs an IPO. GMP is not in the red herring prospectus. It is not part of the book-building process.
Two IPOs that look similar at the level of headline size can be structurally different under the hood. A fresh issue and an offer for sale are not the same thing. A deal with heavy anchor participation is not the same as a deal struggling to fill quality demand.
The disciplined investor reads the paperwork first and treats GMP as noise around the edges, not as the core explanation.